NBA Championship Odds: Latest NBA Finals Odds
With just two teams remaining in the 2024 NBA Playoffs, the Boston Celtics are the prohibitive favorite to end up winning the NBA Finals.
Oddsmakers put the Celtics at -1000, giving them a large margin over the Mavericks (+550).
Who is favored to win the 2024 NBA Championship?
The Boston Celtics (-1000) are the favorites because they not only have All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but they added Kristaps Porzingis coming off his best NBA season, and they got Jrue Holiday from Portland to replace Marcus Smart.
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What are the current NBA Championship Odds?
The current NBA finals odds have the Boston Celtics as the most likely team to win the 2024 Finals series at -1000. Using implied probability, oddsmakers believe the Celtics have an 80% chance of winning the championship.
The Celtics face the heavy underdog Mavericks (+550) in the NBA Finals. Oddsmakers believe the title is the Celtics' to lose.
NBA Champion: Opening Odds
The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets have swapped places since the preseason. Take a look at how the top teams' odds have moved since the summer:
| Team | Current | Nov. | Opening |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | -170 | +370 | +550 |
| MKE | +440 | +420 | +650 |
| DEN | +400 | +440 | +450 |
| PHX | +650 | +650 | +450 |
| LAC | +3000 | +1900 | +2700 |
| LAL | +2100 | +2100 | +1600 |
| MIA | +3900 | +3900 | +1800 |
NBA Finals Odds News
Player movement leads to odds movement, and if there is one thing that every NBA season has in common it is this: Somebody somewhere is going to want a change of scenery, and there will be more trades.
That right there is the best bet in the entire NBA: New front office regimes want to remake their franchises, and players who were indispensable last season can become superfluous this season.
- 📅 Dec. 2: Nets forward Ben Simmons receives an epidural to help alleviate the bask spasms that have limited his availability.
- 📅 Nov. 29: Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards leaves the game vs. the Thunder with a hip injury.
- 📅 Nov. 24: Suns forward Kevin Durant misses back-to-back games with an ankle injury.
- 📅 Nov. 22: 76ers center Joel Embiid misses his first of three games so far this season.
- 📅 Nov. 15: Warriors forward Draymond Green is suspended for five games for an altercation with Minnesota's Rudy Gobert.
- 📅 Nov. 15: Bradley Beal (back spasms) is a last-minute scratch for the Suns, preventing his long-awaited season debut.
- 📅 Nov. 3: The first ever NBA in-season tournament begins.
- 📅 Nov. 6: Nuggets guard Jamal Murray misses 11 straight games with a hamstring injury.
- 📅 Oct. 31: The Clippers trade for James Harden in a blockbuster, early-morning trade. L.A.'s NBA Finals odds move to +1300.
- 📅 Oct. 28: Heat guard/forward Jimmy Butler misses his first of four games this season.
- 📅 Oct. 24: The NBA regular season tips off.
- 📅 Sept. 28: The Bucks make the best trade offer for Damian Lillard as the Heat refused to part with Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo, and the Heat's odds jumped to +3000 in early October.
- 📅 June 26: Phoenix trades for Bradley Beal, who comes over from the Washington Wizards and will be asked to play point guard since Chris Paul has been jettisoned..
NBA Championship Favorites
Now we are going to look at three teams—a favorite, a contender, and a longshot—that are wager-worthy for a number of reasons. There is some author bias here (we believe in full disclosure), so take that into account when considering what the best odds are. A rule of thumb at the home office is to hedge, so you should know it is OK to not put all of your eggs in one basket.
- 🥇 Favorite: Boston Celtics (-170)
- 🥈 Contender: Minnesota Timberwolves (+280)
- 🥉 Longshot: Indiana Pacers (+3500)
Western Conference Favorites
⛏️ Denver Nuggets (+400)
- 📈 Strengths: Reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokic
- 📉 Weaknesses: Loss of Bruce Brown in free agency
In case you have forgotten, these guys went 16-4 in the postseason, including 10-1 after being tied 2-2 with Phoenix in the second round. They are not getting the respect they deserve, and you can be sure coach Michael Malone will use that as a motivator.
Nikola Jokic is far and away the most talented center to come into the league in decades Jokic is the +150 MVP favorite in player awards futures markets. Do with that information what you wish.
However, the Nuggets are capable of losing—it happened twice in a row in the second round against Phoenix.
☀️ Phoenix Suns (+650)
- 📈 Strengths: Star power in Durant, Beal and Booker
- 📉 Weaknesses: Lack of pure point guards
Do you really needs three superstars to win? Or did the Nuggets teach us otherwise?
💪 Golden State Warriors (+1900)
- 📈 Strengths: Acquisition of Chris Paul, parting ways with Jordan Poole
- 📉 Weaknesses: Kevon Looney at center
Steve Kerr always manages to get the most out of his veterans, which is why these guys have been to six of the past nine NBA Finals. Steph Curry now has Chris Paul backing him up at point guard, and Jordan Poole (and all the negativity he brought from his feud with Draymond Green) is now an ex-Warrior.
Eastern Conference Favorites
☘️ Boston Celtics (+370)
- 📈 Strengths: Return of Jayson Tatum, acquisition of Kristaps Porzingis
- 📉 Weaknesses: Over-reliance on aging Al Horford at center, pressure on HC Joe Mazzulla
Jayson Tatum is coming off the best season of his career, still under-appreciated as one of the league's elite players. Kristaps Porzingis more than adequately replaces the departed Grant Williams.
However, let us not forget that these guys were 7.5-point favorites against Miami in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals, at home no less, and were toast by halftime.
Robert Williams III was sent to Portland in the deal for Holiday, which means they will need to rely on 37-year-old center Al Horford more than they did last season. Size still matters.
Plus, head coach Joe Mazzulla is one four-game losing streak away from the hottest of hot seats.
🦌 Milwaukee Bucks (+440)
- 📈 Strengths: Adding Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley to lineup with Giannis Antetokounmpo
- 📉 Weaknesses: History vs. Heat in Eastern Conference
New coach Adrian Griffin is an untested commodity when it comes to leading a team with legitimate championship aspirations.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are two of the six NBA players who averaged at least 30.0 points last season. New addition Malik Beasley made 275 3-pointers last season and 280 the previous year.
The Beasley pickup was just what they needed even before they got Lillard. This is an extremely deep 3-point shooting team.
🔥 Miami Heat (+3900)
- 📈 Strengths: Return of Jimmy Butler
- 📉 Weaknesses: Lack of consistency throughout the season
Jimmy Butler is known as "Playoff Jimmy" for a reason, and the price move from +1000 to +3000 when they failed to get Damian Lillard seemed extreme.
But the Heat run hot and cold like a leaky faucet. They lallygag through the regular season and then flip a switch come playoff time, which eventually undermines preparedness if the wrong playoff opponent comes along. We saw it against the Knicks in the second round, and in Games 4, 5 and 6 against Boston. Let's see who they can add before the trade deadline.
NBA Championship Contenders
When you go down the odds board and try to identify worthy flyer wager candidates, you can convince yourself of just about anything. So the trick when gambling on NBA title odds is balance likelihood of success with ability to withstand a financial loss.
There are 30 NBA teams, and 29 of them will have their seasons end in failure. With that in mind, we search for undervalued contenders.
Western Conference Contenders
🐺 Minnesota Timberwolves (+2800)
- 📈 Strengths: 7-footer pair of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns
- 📉 Weaknesses: Lack of postseason experience
The NBA's coldest-city team has started the season red-hot, and the biggest reason is their stable health. Last season, injuries reduced the number of games that Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert played together, but this season both have been steady contributors to support the 26.2 points being contributed by Anthony Edwards. They are leading the Western Conference because they have been able to play Gobert and Towns together, something that was limited last season because of injuries. No other team starts two 7-footers, and Minnesota causes matchup nightmares.
They have withstood an injury that knocked Jaden McDaniels out for eight games, and Mike Conley is as steady as they come at point guard.
When shopping for value, consider that a +2800 price on a team leading the Western Conference is highly unusual. Lack of postseason experience is what is keeping their odds so long despite their early-season success, with a record of 15-4 through Dec. 4.
Lopsided losses to the Suns and Kings are likely impacting their NBA championship odds, as well. Road games at Sacramento and Oklahoma City Dec. 23 and Dec. 26 will be closely watched by oddsmakers.
🌴 Los Angeles Clippers (+3000)
- 📈 Strengths: Combination of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George
- 📉 Weaknesses: Kawhi Leonard's health
This was James Harden's desired team. Now that the Clippers have landed him and can pair him with Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, that is scary good.
Leonard and George, if they can ever manage to play a bunch of games together, are a frighteningly good combo. But, the term "load management" originated with Leonard, who seems never as healthy or sharp as he was in his San Antonio or Toronto days.
👑 Sacramento Kings (+3600)
- 📈 Strengths: Return of Domantis Sabonis
- 📉 Weaknesses: Lack of playoff history
Much like the Grizzlies when they were at +3000, the Kings at +3600 makes little sense given their third-place finish in the West last season. They are fast and flashy without being sexy. Keegan Murray and Malik Monk may not be household names outside of their own homes, but both are serious ballers.
When you are the highest-scoring team in the NBA and you bring in the reigning Euroleague MVP (Sasha Vezenkov), pairing him with Domantis Sabonis (+15000 in MVP futures) and reigning Clutch Player of the Year De'Aaron Fox, you have a little something.
But because you play in a small market and have not won a playoff series since '04, you get overlooked. Two decades of not winning a single playoff series can eat at your confidence before Day 1 of training camp: "I play for Sacramento, so therefore I am not winning."
Eastern Conference Contenders
⚔️ Cleveland Cavaliers (+3000)
- 📈 Strengths: Defensive tandem of Evan Mobley & Jarrett Allen, addition of Max Strus
- 📉 Weaknesses: They were outcoached by the Knicks in losing 4-1 in the first round after entering as heavy favorites.
The Cavs were one of six 51-win squads. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are the best defensive big man tandem in the East, and Max Strus was a savvy free agent pickup.
Donovan Mitchell is a superstud playing for coach J.B. Bickerstaff, who has a lot to prove to keep Dan Gilbert from telephoning Jeff Van Gundy. After all, They were outcoached by the Knicks in losing 4-1 in the first round after entering as heavy favorites.
🗽 New York Knicks (+4600)
- 📈 Strengths: Return of Jalen Brunson & Julius Randle, draft capital to make trades
- 📉 Weaknesses: Mitchell Robinson's free-throw struggles
Donte DiVincenzo was an excellent pickup, and re-signing Jason Hart was crucial. Jalen Brunson became an elite player last season, Julius Randle was already in that stratosphere, and Mitchell Robinson can possibly be dealt (along with stashed No. 1 picks) for a better center. Robinson's inability to make free throws means that teams just foul him rather than let him attempt a shot. Those types of players limit you.
Leon Rose has too many stashed No. 1 picks to sit on them forever.
🦅 Atlanta Hawks (+9500)
- 📈 Strengths: Trae Young
- 📉 Weaknesses: Dejounte Murray & DeAndre Hunter not meeting expectations, depth in front court is lacking
This was the NBA's "it" team just a couple years back, and the core has been together long enough to start sniffing that 51-win club. When you have a player who shines in the spotlight as brightly as Trae Young, you can go places.
They moved from +7500 to +13000 after the Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday trades. The mid-November line was +9500.
NBA Championship Longshots
These teams are longshots for good reasons. Call me an "eternal optimist."
Western Conference Longshots
⚡️ Oklahoma City Thunder (+4600)
- 📈 Strengths: Return of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey's potential
- 📉 Weaknesses: Youth
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was first-team All-NBA, and he has a better chance of being a playoff winner if Josh Giddey can become the triple-double machine he looked like two seasons ago.
Chet Holmgren finally debuts after missing all of last season with a foot injury.
The Thunder are one major trade away from being a Top 8 lock.
🐻 Memphis Grizzlies (+12000)
- 📈 Strengths: Coming off strong 2023 performance, additions of Marcus Smart & Derrick Rose
- 📉 Weaknesses: Loss of Dillon Brooks in free agency, Steven Adams' machups vs. centers
The team that plays closest to Kentucky's southern border picked up Marcus Smart from the Celtics for the price of Tyus Jones and a pair of first-round picks, and the next ESPN commentator who calls it the best deal of the summer will be the first. But anybody who understands basketball will tell you that defense wins championships, and elite perimeter defenders are nearly impossible to acquire. But Grizzlies general manager Zach Kleiman did it.
Pairing Smart, Ja Morant (after his 25-game suspension ends) and Desmond Bane in three-guard alignments is going to be very tough for opponents to handle.
When shopping for value, consider that this team won 51 games. Only six teams won that many. They had the second-best record in the West last season at 51-31, and they have added Smart and Derrick Rose.
🧭 Portland Trail Blazers (+100000)
- 📈 Strengths: More opportunities for Scoot Henderson
- 📉 Weaknesses: Damian Lillard trade noise
Damian Lillard's situation was a summertime distraction, and the haul that general manager Joe Cronin got back was only massive when it comes to accumulating draft picks. And yet what they got for Damian Lillard can make them a play-in team (Miami was a play-in team last year, and that worked out OK for them.)
Scoot Henderson will have a chance to average 30 as a rookie with Lillard gone, though that's not to say their season will be any easier. Their NBA Finals odds moved from +25000 in September after the Lillard trade.
Eastern Conference Longshots
😤 Chicago Bulls (+21000)
- 📈 Strengths: Match up well vs. Eastern Conference opponents
- 📉 Weaknesses: Underperforming since the Obama Administration
On paper, they are better than the Nets and Raptors, who have shorter odds. Zach Lavine, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic are damn good players. Something is missing here when those three can only manage a No. 9 finish as they did last season.
🏀 Brooklyn Nets (+31000)
- 📈 Strengths: Return of Mikal Bridges
- 📉 Weaknesses: Return of Ben Simmons
Mikal Bridges showed himself to be an All-Star level offensive talent, which is why he is favored for Most Improved Player (+750 at DraftKings Sportsbook KY).
Nobody will take them seriously (they have Ben Simmons on their team), and they will use that as motivation to win games they shouldn't win.
🦖 Toronto Raptors (+24000)
- 📈 Strengths: OG Anonuby's perimeter defense, potential trade return for Pascal Siakam
- 📉 Weaknesses: Uncertainty of Pascal Siakam's long-term future
They lost Fred Van Vleet in free agency, which hurts, but they will give it a go with Dennis Schroder, who should be in each of your fantasy drafts at a minimum.
O.G. Anonuby is the best perimeter defender you may not have known about, and Pascal Siakam can bring a ton in return in a trade. The uncertainty regarding Siakam's long-term future is the elephant in the room.
NBA Championship Bets
This is where we discuss gambling strategy when it comes to championship futures. I am not a big fan of putting all eggs in one basket. There are worthy teams with odds a lot longer than they should be (see: the Denver Nuggets). That being said, stuff happens over the course of an 82-game season to tip the scales.
In the other conference, Boston and Milwaukee clearly have the most talent but were snakebit last spring. Somebody in the East is going to be sneaky good, just like Sacramento in the West a year ago.
When it comes to NBA championship wagers, the money is safer in the wallet than riding on an East team other than the Bucks or Celtics.
Here are a few NBA Futures bets to consider with the season kicking off this month.
NBA Championship Odds FAQs
Author
Chris Sheridan is a veteran NBA writer who has been covering the league since 1992, with a specialty in international basketball after being credentialed for every Olympics since 1996 in Atlanta. He has been covering sports gambling since 2018.
