Looking Back at 2024 Kentucky Derby Odds
Looking back at the 2024 Kentucky Derby, the race delivered yet another surprise in keeping with recent trends. The betting favorite, Fierceness, opened at 5-2 on the morning line after a dominant Florida Derby win. Trained by Todd Pletcher, he came into Churchill Downs with major hype as the reigning Breedersā Cup Juvenile championābut as is often the case in the Derby, the favorite didnāt fire.
Instead, it was Mystik Dan (18-1) who stole the show in a dramatic photo finish, edging out Sierra Leone (9-2) and Forever Young (6-1) in the closest three-horse finish in decades. The race time was 2:03.34, and it marked the first Derby win for trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who had already won the Kentucky Oaks the day beforeābecoming the first duo to sweep the Oaks and Derby in over 70 years.
The 2024 Derby reminded bettors once again: in a 20-horse field with wild pace dynamics and unpredictable traffic, betting the favorite may be safeābut backing a closer at a price might be smarter.
History of the Kentucky Derby
Sporting events donāt get more historic than the Kentucky Derby. First run in 1875, it holds the title as the longest-running sporting event in the United States. Each year, only the best three-year-old Thoroughbreds earn a spot in whatās famously known as āthe most exciting two minutes in sports.ā
Staged at the legendary Churchill Downs Racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky, the Derby has crowned some of the sportās most iconic namesāAmerican Pharoah, California Chrome, and Smarty Jones, to name a few.
Trainer Bob Baffert holds the distinction of being the most successful modern-day Derby trainer, with six wins under the Twin Spires. Among his champions is Justify, the 2018 Derby winner who also became the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the race without having competed as a two-year-oldāand went on to sweep the Triple Crown that year.
š MORE: Best Jockeys in Kentucky Derby History
Who Won the Kentucky Derby in 2024?
The 150th Kentucky Derby in 2024 lived up to its milestone billing, ending in a historic photo finish. Mystik Dan (18-1) edged out Sierra Leone (9-2) and Forever Young (6-1) in the closest three-horse finish in Derby history. The winning time was 2:03.34, and it marked a memorable Oaks-Derby weekend sweep for trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who also won the Kentucky Oaks the day before.
Heavy favorite Fierceness, who dazzled in the Florida Derby, failed to hit the board, reinforcing the Derby's reputation for unpredictability and longshot success.
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Who Won the Kentucky Derby in 2023?
Mage (15-1) pulled off a thrilling win in the 2023 Kentucky Derby, closing late to beat Two Philās and Angel of Empire, who was the post-time favorite after Forte was scratched on the morning of the race. Mage's victory continued the recent trend of longshots surprising the field, with favorites falling short. The last favorite to win the Derby remains Justify in 2018.
Who Won the Kentucky Derby in 2022?
Rich Strike (80-1) made history as one of the biggest-priced winners in over a century, shocking the field and bettors alike. Entered into the race at the last minute due to a scratch, the Eric Reed-trained colt, ridden by Sonny Leon, surged up the rail to win in stunning fashionāsealing one of the most unforgettable moments in Derby history.
Notable Past Kentucky Derby Winners
The Derby has always been a proving ground for greatness. The legendary Secretariat still holds the race record at 1:59.40, set in 1973. More recently, both American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) not only won the Derby but went on to complete the Triple Crown, joining an elite club.
Meanwhile, California Chrome, the 2014 winner, became one of the highest-earning horses in North American history, bringing in close to $15 million over his career.
And while fans celebrate greatness, bookmakers had their moment too in 2022, when Rich Strike stunned the field at 80-1āthe biggest upset since Donerail won at 91-1 in 1913.
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How To Place Bets on the Kentucky Derby
Here's how to place bets on the 2023 Kentucky Derby:
- ā Login or Sign Up with the legal sportsbook of your choice
- ā Choose Churchill Downs Race Track
- ā Select the Kentucky Derby race number (typically second to last on the card)
- ā Pick the horse that you want to bet on
- ā Select your desired wager
- ā Enter the dollar amount you would like to wager
- ā Place your bet
Win bets on the Kentucky Derby favorite was the safest betting strategy between 2013 and 2018, during which period every favorite went in. However, the trend has shifted in recent years, so much so that three of the last four winners have gone off 81/1, 269/10 and 65/1.
That suggests anyone assessing the latest 2023 Kentucky Derby odds should look further afield than the top of the market and tackle the race with more exotic bets than straightforward win wagers.
Don't forget to check out our list of the best Kentucky betting promo codes for the latest offers.
Kentucky Derby Futures Betting
Futures betting on the Kentucky Derby can be risky but it can also bring great rewards.
Getting a bigger price is all well and good, but the further in advance of the big day you place a futures wager, the bigger the scope for something to go wrong. If your wager doesn't make the race, for whatever reason, then the bet is down.
Kentucky Derby Betting Tips
For all of Forte's prominent class, the Fountain Of Youth Stakes has only produced two winners since 1980. However, 5 of the last 7 Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Florida Derby, and Forte took home first place.
Run style is essential when assessing Kentucky Derby odds. 2022 winner Rich Strike came from off the pace but the opening quarter splits were the quickest in the race's history and the race was set up perfectly for a close.
However, nearly every other winner in the last decade has raced close to the pace and the ability to lay up handy, no matter the gate, is ultimately a crucial factor. Any horse not near the front by the home turn almost certainly has too much to do.
Kentucky Derby Betting Glossary
- š„ Win: Simple, you need to bet the winner! If your horse dead heats, your stake is halved.
- š„ Place: Generally speaking, this is a top-three wager, although that drops to the top two in fields of 5-7 runners.
- š„ Show: A similar bet to the Place bet, your selection needs to finish third or better.
- šÆ Exacta: One of the most popular wagers as it can often generate juicy returns. Two horses are selected and must finish first and second in the correct order.
- š Quinella: It's an Exacta bet with some insurance in that your two selections must finish first and second but in either order.
- š Trifecta: A bet that can return big bucks. You must select the first three horses home, in the correct order if the favorite bombs completely, winning Trifecta wagers can often pay huge returns, especially in Triple Crown races.
- š Superfecta: Even bigger than a Trifecta, you need to go one place better by selecting the first FOUR horses home, in the correct order. This can pay mega sums.
- ā Super Hi-Five: A potentially life-changing bet because you must select the first FIVE horses home, in the correct order. Winnings are unlimited and a winning Super Hi-5 bet from the 2022 Kentucky Derby would have generated a near $150,000-1 payout.
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More Horse Racing Betting
The Kentucky Derby is just the start to the most exciting racing season in the United States. There are several other major horse betting markets you can join after the Kentucky Derby. But, before you pick your wagers, check out our guide to the best horse race betting apps of the year.
Triple Crown Horse Racing
The Kentucky Derby winner nearly always goes on to attempt the fabled Triple Crown, which a horse achieves by winning the three biggest U.S. races. However, only 13 Kentucky Derby winners have gone on to earn a place as one of the greats of the sport. As more horses attempt this rare feat, you can follow Triple Crown odds as soon as they're released.
Preakness Stakes Horse Racing
The 2023 Preakness Stakes takes place at Pimlico Race Course in the weeks following the Kentucky Derby. No horse has won the Preakness Stakes by further than than the 11-and-a-half length success of Smarty Jones in 2004. Bob Baffert has won the race more than any other modern-day trainer but the eight-time winner hasn't got his hands on the Grade 1 prize since Justify scored en route to completing the Triple Crown in 2018. Follow Preakness Stakes odds in the lead up to 2025's race!
Belmont Stakes Horse Racing
The Belmont Stakes is the last and often the most difficult leg of the Triple Crown to win, primarily because the 1-mile, 4 furlong contest is a stiffer stamina test than both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. Follow Belmont Stakes odds in the lead up to 2025's race!
Kentucky Derby Odds FAQ
As of now, Journalism is the favorite to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby, with odds at 3-1. Trained by Michael McCarthy, Journalism has secured four consecutive victories, including a notable win at the Santa Anita Derby. With the race approaching, these odds may fluctuate as betting activity intensifies.
The 2025 Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, May 3, with the 151st running of the iconic race scheduled to go off at approximately 6:45 p.m. ET.
Mystik Dan (18-1) won the 2024 Kentucky Derby in a thrilling photo finish, crossing the wire in 2:03.34. He narrowly edged out Sierra Leone (9-2) and Forever Young (6-1) in one of the closest three-horse finishes in Derby history. Mystik Dan later finished second in the Preakness Stakes, officially ending his bid for the Triple Crown.
Top horse racing sites like TwinSpires, FanDuel and TVG will have Kentucky Derby futures available for 2025 soon, though many of the Derby betting markets won't open until race week. Horse racing futures bets are risky but the rewards can be much greater!
Author
Gavin Beech is a writer and contributor for BetKentucky.com and has worked in the betting industry for almost 20 years. Gavin is an experienced horse racing journalist, sports betting content writer and tipster. He has worked for some of the biggest online operators around, notably MailOnline and the Racing Post, where he is a regular on the Live Tipster slot.
