Kentucky vs Alabama Odds: Who Is Favored To Win?
Alabama, which is riding a seven-game winning streak, is a 10.5-point road favorite against Kentucky at FanDuel Sportsbook Kentucky.
| 🏈 Spread | UA -10.5 (-110), UK +10.5 (-110) |
| 📊 Total | 48.5 |
| 📈 Moneyline | UA -465, UK +350 |
| ✅ Last Verified: | December 19, 2024 |
The lookahead Kentucky sports betting odds for Alabama vs. Kentucky had the Crimson Tide as a 9.5-point favorite. However, when the official point spread was released late Saturday night, the Crimson Tide were a consensus favorite of 10.5 points at FanDuel and DraftKings Kentucky.
Based on implied probability, the Crimson Tide have an 82.3% chance to defeat Kentucky for an eighth consecutive time. Kentucky's +350 moneyline odds suggest the Wildcats based on implied win probability have just a 22.2% chance to defeat Alabama (based on implied probability) for the first time since 1997.
The Crimson Tide ran their winning streak to seven in a row (5-2 ATS) with a 42-28 come-from-behind victory at home over LSU in Week 10. Alabama, whose only loss was to Texas in Week 3, is unbeaten in SEC play (6-0) and was ranked No. 8 in the first College Football Playoff poll of the 2023-24 season.
Kentucky halted a three-game SU and ATS losing skid with a 24-3 rout of Mississippi State as a 4.5-point road favorite in Week 10. With the victory, the Wildcats improved to 3-3 SU and ATS against SEC competition.
However, Kentucky has lost consecutive home games to Tennessee (33-27 as a 4-point underdog) and Missouri (38-21 as a 1.5-point favorite). The Wildcats are also 0-2 SU and ATS against ranked teams, falling to Tennessee and two-time defending national champion Georgia (51-13 as a 15-point road underdog).
Kentucky has gone Over the total in six of eight games this season, including the last six in a row. The Over also is 6-3 in Alabama games this season (4-1 in the last five).
Kentucky Chances To Win vs Alabama
Kentucky will need to play near perfect football in all three phases of the game — offense, defense and special teams — to beat Alabama for the first time in more than a quarter century.
The Wildcats had those three phases clicking during a season-opening five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS on Kentucky sports betting apps). They scored 37 points per game, allowed 15.2 points per game, and posted an average victory margin of 21.8 points. In fact, all five were double-digit victories, which helped Kentucky rise to No. 20 in the Top 25 rankings.
However, the Wildcats' schedule got significantly more difficult when the calendar flipped from September to October. In consecutive weeks, they faced two-time defending national champion and top-ranked Georgia on the road, then hosted Missouri and No. 21 Tennessee in Lexington.
Not only did Kentucky drop all three both SU and ATS, but the defense surrendered more than 30 points in each contest (average of 40.6 points per game) while the offense tallied a total of 61 points (20.3 per game).
The Wildcats finally returned to their early-season form in Week 10, crushing Mississippi State 24-3 on the road.
This week, Kentucky will be facing a stout Alabama defense that had held six consecutive opponents to an average of 15.2 points per game prior to a 42-28 home victory over LSU in Week 10.
How Kentucky Wins vs Alabama
Kentucky will have a chance to upset the Crimson Tide if the defense brings its A-game on Nov. 11 — particularly the run defense.
Through their first nine games, the Wildcats have surrendered just 110.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 21st in the country. In last week's win at Mississippi State, Kentucky held the Bulldogs to 73 rushing yards on 31 carries.
Alabama rumbled for 288 rushing yards on 46 carries in its 14-point win over LSU in Week 10. With that effort, the Crimson Tide are now averaging 162.8 rushing yards per contest. Alabama, which entered the LSU game ranked 76th out of 130 FBS teams in rushing offense, is now ranked 57th.
If the Wildcats' defense can contain Alabama's running game, that will put pressure on Crimson Tide starting quarterback Jalen Milroe. The junior doesn't possess the elite passing skills of previous standout Alabama QBs such as Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones and Bryce Young. In fact, Milroe has passed for more than 240 yards just once in eight games, and went just 15-for-23 for 219 yards against LSU.
However, the elusive Milroe is dangerous with his legs, as he proved against LSU when he rushed for 155 yards and four touchdowns.
Speaking of quarterbacks, Kentucky will need fifth-year senior Devin Leary to come up big on Senior Day. Leary, who transferred to Kentucky after four years at North Carolina State, has 12 touchdowns and five interceptions in six victories, and six touchdowns and two interceptions in three losses.
How Alabama Wins vs Kentucky
Alabama's defense has been its strength all season, holding seven of nine opponents to 21 points or less. If you take out the 62 points allowed to Texas and LSU, the Crimson Tide are ceding exactly 14 points per outing (including 13.3 points per game on the road).
Alabama ranks in the top 40 in every major defensive statistical category: scoring defense (17.8 points per game, 18th); total defense (324.5 yards per game, 24th); rushing defense (119.6 yards per game, 30th); passing defense (205.9 yards per game, 39th); and sacks (29, tied-11th).
Here's why those rankings matter: Kentucky has only faced four opponents ranked inside the top 45 in total defense: Florida, Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee. The Wildcats went 1-3 in those contests—the lone win being 33-14 over Florida—while averaging only 23.5 points.
If the Crimson Tide can shut down Kentucky's average running game and rattle Leary, who has been sacked eight times in three losses and just five times in five wins, they'll likely beat the Wildcats for an eighth consecutive time.
Kentucky Alabama Betting Odds
From the start of the 2021 campaign through Week 5 of this season, Kentucky was one of college football's most profitable regular-season teams, going 20-9 ATS. During that 29-game stretch, the Wildcats went 13-6 ATS at home and 8-3 ATS as an underdog.
However, the script flipped in October, as Kentucky failed to cover the spread in each of its three losses to Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee. The Wildcats snapped that three-game ATS losing skid — their first since November 2018 — by easily covering the 4.5-point spread at Mississippi State in Week 10.
Conversely, Alabama is on a 5-1 ATS run (all as a favorite). That said, prior to cashing in their last two road games at Texas A&M and Mississippi State, the Crimson Tide had been in a 1-6 ATS funk as a visitor dating to the 2021 regular-season finale.
As for the recent point-spread history of Alabama vs. Kentucky, the Crimson Tide are 3-1 ATS since 2009 (2-0 ATS at Kroger Field), all as a favorite of 16 points or more.
Don't forget: Now that sports betting is live in the state, you can use Kentucky sports betting promos to increase your winnings.
Kentucky Alabama Odds: What The Spread Tells Us
The 10.5-point spread means that oddsmakers expect Alabama to defeat Kentucky by at least 11 points. That's something the Crimson Tide have done in seven of 10 games this season. The only exceptions: a 34-24 home loss to Texas in Week 3; a 26-20 victory at Texas A&M in Week 5; and a 24-21 home victory over Arkansas in Week 6.
Kentucky has two double-digit losses this season (51-13 at Georgia; 38-21 vs. Missouri). Including those blowout defeats, the Wildcats have lost just three regular-season games by 11-plus points since Week 10 of the 2021 season (a stretch of 24 contests).
Kentucky Alabama Odds: What The Moneyline Tells Us
FanDuel Kentucky has Alabama's moneyline odds at -465 against Kentucky. Based on implied probability, the Crimson Tide have an overwhelming 82.2% chance to depart Lexington with a victory.
Kentucky's moneyline odds of +350 mean the Wildcats essentially have a one-in-five chance to upset Alabama.
Kentucky Alabama Prop Bets
Player prop bets for Alabama-Kentucky have not been released. However, at FanDuel Kentucky, bettors can wager on various game-related props. This includes alternate point spread and alternative Over/Under options.
For instance, if you think Kentucky will lose by fewer than seven points, you can bet the Wildcats at +7.5 at +124 odds. That means a $100 wager would win $124 (plus your initial $100 bet) if Kentucky upsets Alabama or loses by a touchdown or less.
Or if you believe the Crimson Tide will defeat Kentucky by 17 or more points for a fourth consecutive meeting, you can bet Alabama -17.5 at +168 odds. So a $100 wager would pay $168.
If you expect Alabama vs. Kentucky to be much lower scoring than the 48.5-point Over/Under total suggests, you can wager Under 42.5 points at +182 odds. Conversely, Over 54.5 total points has odds of +162 at FanDuel.
First-half and first-quarter bets also are available at FanDuel Kentucky. Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite in the first half (-110 odds) and a 2.5-point favorite in the first quarter (-128 odds). The first-half total is 24.5 (Over -104/Under -118), while the first-quarter total is 9.5 (Over -146/Under +116).
What about the college football betting futures market? Kentucky is off the betting board when it comes to odds to win the SEC or the national championship. However, FanDuel Kentucky does offer odds on Alabama in both futures markets. Those odds:
- +800 odds to win the National Championship (down from +1500 prior to Week 10).
- +165 odds to win the SEC Championship Game (second shortest odds behind Georgia, which is -230).
History of Kentucky Alabama Games
The Kentucky-Alabama rivalry dates back more than a century, as the teams first met on Nov. 17, 1917 in Lexington. The Crimson Tide cruised to a 27-0 victory in that contest.
The teams have played intermittently since, with the most significant gap spanning 25 years from Alabama's 13-0 shutout victory in 1947 and its 35-0 shutout victory in 1972.
In fact, there have been 17 shutouts in 41 all-time meetings, with the Crimson Tide being on the right side of 16 of those blowouts.
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Kentucky Record vs Alabama
Alabama has flat-out owned Kentucky on the gridiron, posting a 38-2-1 all-time record. The Wildcats' lone victories both came at home in 1922 (6-0 in the second ever head-to-head matchup) and 1997 (40-34 in overtime).
Since that 1997 contest, the Crimson Tide have defeated Kentucky seven straight times by the cumulative score 272-84. The past three meetings—2013, 2016 and 2020—have been particularly lopsided, with Alabama winning by scores of 48-7 (road), 34-6 (home) and 63-3 (road).
In the latter contest, the Crimson Tide rolled up 509 total yards and held the Wildcats to 179.
How To Watch Kentucky vs Alabama
You can watch Kentucky vs Alabama on Nov. 11 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kentucky vs Alabama Predictions
Kentucky struggled against its three toughest opponents to date (Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee), so it's difficult to envision the Wildcats keeping it close against Alabama. After all, both teams played Tennessee at home in consecutive weeks late last month, and Kentucky lost 33-26 while the Crimson Tide rolled to a 34-20 victory.
Will Alabama pummel the Wildcats as badly as it did the last three times these SEC rivals squared off (victories of 48-7, 34-6 and 63-3)? Unlikely. But a 31-13 Alabama win seems well within reason.
So play Alabama -10.5 points.
Kentucky vs Alabama FAQs
Author
Matt Jacob is a Las Vegas-based writer, editor and project manager who has been involved in the sports betting industry for nearly 20 years. His sports betting work has appeared in a variety of print publications and online platforms, including the Philadelphia Inquirer, The New York Post, Forbes.com, Props.com and VegasSeven magazine.
